AUD to USD Forecast: Private Sector PMIs and the RBA Rate Path
==========
On Tuesday, preliminary private sector PMI numbers from Australia garnered investor interest. The Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.3 to 49.9. Moreover, the Services PMI slipped from 54.4 to 54.2. Economists forecasted PMIs of 47.9 and 54.0, respectively. The Services PMI warranted more attention, accounting for over 60% of the Australian economy. New business rose at the most marked pace since May 2022. Firms cited a pickup in foreign new business amidst an improving demand environment. Improving market conditions supported the labor market, with employment rising. Input price inflation accelerated in April. However, output price inflation increased at a less marked rate. Firms absorbed some of the input cost pressures. Confidence amongst service providers eased but remained elevated compared with levels over the past 12 months. The Australian manufacturing sector reported higher input and output price inflation. A resilient services sector and the better-than-expected manufacturing PMI numbers suggested the economy could perform better than the RBA forecasts. Australian inflation numbers for the first quarter will be in focus on Wednesday. The PMIs and hotter-than-expected inflation numbers could force the RBA to resume rate hike discussions. Later in the session, US private sector PMIs will also draw investor attention. Economists forecast the S&P Global Services PMI to rise from 51.7 to 51.8 in April. Moreover, economists predict the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to increase from 51.9 to 52.0. Better-than-expected numbers could further reduce investor bets on a September Fed rate hike. The US services sector is also a contributor to inflation. Investors must consider the sub-components, including prices, job creation, and new orders. Higher input and output costs, job creation rates, and new orders would likely influence the Fed rate path. Near-term AUD/USD trends will hinge on the US Services PMI and inflation numbers from Australia (Wed) and the US (Fri). Higher-than-expected Australian inflation numbers could refuel speculation about an RBA interest rate hike. In contrast, a pickup in service sector activity and sticky inflation could further delay a Fed interest rate cut. A more hawkish RBA could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the Aussie dollar.
#Aud/usd #Pmi #Rba #Inflation #InterestRate #EconomicData
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/aud-to-usd-forecast-private-sector-pmis-and-the-rba-rate-path-1425421
FX Empire /
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2024-04-23 00:44:59
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2024-04-23 00:44:59Event JSON
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"content": "AUD to USD Forecast: Private Sector PMIs and the RBA Rate Path\n==========\n\nOn Tuesday, preliminary private sector PMI numbers from Australia garnered investor interest. The Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.3 to 49.9. Moreover, the Services PMI slipped from 54.4 to 54.2. Economists forecasted PMIs of 47.9 and 54.0, respectively. The Services PMI warranted more attention, accounting for over 60% of the Australian economy. New business rose at the most marked pace since May 2022. Firms cited a pickup in foreign new business amidst an improving demand environment. Improving market conditions supported the labor market, with employment rising. Input price inflation accelerated in April. However, output price inflation increased at a less marked rate. Firms absorbed some of the input cost pressures. Confidence amongst service providers eased but remained elevated compared with levels over the past 12 months. The Australian manufacturing sector reported higher input and output price inflation. A resilient services sector and the better-than-expected manufacturing PMI numbers suggested the economy could perform better than the RBA forecasts. Australian inflation numbers for the first quarter will be in focus on Wednesday. The PMIs and hotter-than-expected inflation numbers could force the RBA to resume rate hike discussions. Later in the session, US private sector PMIs will also draw investor attention. Economists forecast the S\u0026P Global Services PMI to rise from 51.7 to 51.8 in April. Moreover, economists predict the S\u0026P Global Manufacturing PMI to increase from 51.9 to 52.0. Better-than-expected numbers could further reduce investor bets on a September Fed rate hike. The US services sector is also a contributor to inflation. Investors must consider the sub-components, including prices, job creation, and new orders. Higher input and output costs, job creation rates, and new orders would likely influence the Fed rate path. Near-term AUD/USD trends will hinge on the US Services PMI and inflation numbers from Australia (Wed) and the US (Fri). Higher-than-expected Australian inflation numbers could refuel speculation about an RBA interest rate hike. In contrast, a pickup in service sector activity and sticky inflation could further delay a Fed interest rate cut. A more hawkish RBA could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the Aussie dollar.\n\n#Aud/usd #Pmi #Rba #Inflation #InterestRate #EconomicData\n\nhttps://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/aud-to-usd-forecast-private-sector-pmis-and-the-rba-rate-path-1425421",
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