First, generals always fight the last war and while the national polls (unlike swing-state polls) were very close in '16, they underestimated Trump's support by abt 4 pts in '20. It's been pretty clear that they've made an effort to avoid a repeat in '24.
Notably, about 1/2 of high-quality pollsters are weighting their samples according to respondents' self-reported vote in '20. This had been considered methodologically fringy, largely because people may not accurately report how they voted. 2/
Joshua Holland
npub1zt…7hcs4
2024-10-27 16:31:22 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…2azf
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wss://relay.momostr.pinkPublished at
2024-10-27 16:31:22 UTCEvent JSON
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