in 2019 & 21 I chaired election campaigns for a candidate. I opened 338 daily. In both cases they predicted the ultimate winner, but the margins were way off. The number polled even in national polls is so small I find the results somewhat dubious.
When you then try to extrapolate national or provincial polls to a local level with limited local knowledge it really is a "best guess". I like the site but treat the data with justified skepticism.
Matthew Guy
npub1xh…yp8a4
2025-01-26 15:14:42 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…262y
Author Public Key
npub1xh55q2c05x77x387gvkehdcdstj6s8vn04sysw3ur0q7kwfanfdsgyp8a4Seen on
wss://relay.momostr.pinkPublished at
2025-01-26 15:14:42 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "ecef9524448b0b8afdd7174fb3235186e26ee33343d3512c77f0765b4213aaa5",
"pubkey": "35e9402b0fa1bde344fe432d9bb70d82e5a81d937d60483a3c1bc1eb393d9a5b",
"created_at": 1737904482,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"e",
"b2729b152c9a75ae405916782c99b1d2a28468bf0c53a34db58b70d5600642d3",
"",
"reply",
"807100c47466d9d7526688cc9dada4db699f41a6619ae091d00e66230ac1e82c"
],
[
"p",
"24d66d002d4564ca18d2efc64d5f67d7708e0c9c234e5949469081b3adf7917e"
],
[
"p",
"35e9402b0fa1bde344fe432d9bb70d82e5a81d937d60483a3c1bc1eb393d9a5b"
],
[
"e",
"3dc9d60d1a1eab79f44955d322d7dbdabde621312bf837d46252666469c29950",
"",
"root",
"807100c47466d9d7526688cc9dada4db699f41a6619ae091d00e66230ac1e82c"
],
[
"p",
"807100c47466d9d7526688cc9dada4db699f41a6619ae091d00e66230ac1e82c"
],
[
"proxy",
"https://mstdn.ca/@matthewguy/113895308166601160",
"web"
],
[
"proxy",
"https://mstdn.ca/users/matthewguy/statuses/113895308166601160",
"activitypub"
],
[
"L",
"pink.momostr"
],
[
"l",
"pink.momostr.activitypub:https://mstdn.ca/users/matthewguy/statuses/113895308166601160",
"pink.momostr"
],
[
"-"
]
],
"content": "in 2019 \u0026 21 I chaired election campaigns for a candidate. I opened 338 daily. In both cases they predicted the ultimate winner, but the margins were way off. The number polled even in national polls is so small I find the results somewhat dubious. \n\nWhen you then try to extrapolate national or provincial polls to a local level with limited local knowledge it really is a \"best guess\". I like the site but treat the data with justified skepticism.",
"sig": "4b5f55be1ac46428be35bc25bb09a35dda4450bbb4670e7702d8a6c76ab28fefe3f1c2fc874d024083ea89f21e6447dacf925bcac247ff873d8ab0637c8792b4"
}