🧵How much should the NHS worry about this winter's flu wave?
You may have seen this alarming headline on the BBC website today...
I think it's too early to make this claim and the data does not support it.
I think it will be a bad flu season but no evidence to think worse than previous yrs
1/8
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:rw2kfkoa7dvxmip5rm4nay7x&cid=bafkreifpnoeaf2qjw45j55vffrtdronubz3vpaciligbivsguxppqpr75i
Prof Christina Pagel
npub19h…sqwaj
2025-12-04 18:00:28 UTC
Author Public Key
npub19ht3smudufrchzj6lw6ev6l0la29hwyvrv3hy7gwlazlpgz7v9jsvsqwajSeen on
wss://relay.momostr.pinkPublished at
2025-12-04 18:00:28 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "c5f0dfe92448e0215c7cae5a00baeea58c5c106df8cf9c921dbaa2cff413e9ab",
"pubkey": "2dd7186f8de2478b8a5afbb5966befff545bb88c1b2372790eff45f0a05e6165",
"created_at": 1764871228,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"imeta",
"url https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:rw2kfkoa7dvxmip5rm4nay7x\u0026cid=bafkreifpnoeaf2qjw45j55vffrtdronubz3vpaciligbivsguxppqpr75i",
"m image/jpeg"
],
[
"proxy",
"https://bsky.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:rw2kfkoa7dvxmip5rm4nay7x/post/3m76khdz57s23",
"web"
],
[
"proxy",
"https://bsky.brid.gy/convert/ap/at://did:plc:rw2kfkoa7dvxmip5rm4nay7x/app.bsky.feed.post/3m76khdz57s23",
"activitypub"
],
[
"L",
"pink.momostr"
],
[
"l",
"pink.momostr.activitypub:https://bsky.brid.gy/convert/ap/at://did:plc:rw2kfkoa7dvxmip5rm4nay7x/app.bsky.feed.post/3m76khdz57s23",
"pink.momostr"
],
[
"-"
]
],
"content": "🧵How much should the NHS worry about this winter's flu wave?\n\nYou may have seen this alarming headline on the BBC website today... \n\nI think it's too early to make this claim and the data does not support it. \n\nI think it will be a bad flu season but no evidence to think worse than previous yrs\n\n1/8\nhttps://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:rw2kfkoa7dvxmip5rm4nay7x\u0026cid=bafkreifpnoeaf2qjw45j55vffrtdronubz3vpaciligbivsguxppqpr75i\n",
"sig": "86165b3241a375bad275a734fd2e2e56e66029cfcf5c69b570edd175779e2f003afded036b26b21c3ff53ea5de20b4943cfeee2dc29e33c17425b4677f36ef76"
}