Vic on Nostr: A cycle is 210000 blocks, and based on average block times, ends up slightly shorter ...

A cycle is 210000 blocks, and based on average block times, ends up slightly shorter than 4 years. A decent rule of thumb is about 47 months.

An example you can check now is the halving date projected by Clark Moody to be March 23, 2028. Everything about the cycles gradually shifts left over time.

Other generalizations:
- bullish phase typically starts 6 months after the halving (thats about a month and a half from now from apr 20 2024 halving)
- cycle high typically about 540 days post halving (oct 12, 2025)
- cycle low typically about 540 days prehalving (oct 28 2022, sep 30 2026)

Puzzles thinks it will coincide with past cycles fairly closely.

I think front running and fomo will push for an earlier top than is typical.