Base case is we're about to bounce big time because we never really had a bull market from the last ATH, especially when adjusted for inflation and especially when compared to gold.
And the real reason we had the dip was sellers front-running the top of the 4-year cycle which invalidated it. IOW, the second order effect of everyone knowing the 4-year cycle was to destroy the cycle.
But when it happened people thought, "Of course, it's the cycle" and expect a two-year bear. So they capitulated early, and the real bull begins as the macro environment turns inflationary and the fundamentals are better than ever.
Of course I could be wrong, but one thing I know for sure is all the clever people telling me it's a bear and breaking out their charts don't know shit, either.
Skate to where the puck is going, not where it's been.
Chris Liss
npub1dt…4hgu0
2026-02-10 11:46:17 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0Seen on
wss://nos.lolPublished at
2026-02-10 11:46:17 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Base case is we're about to bounce big time because we never really had a bull market from the last ATH, especially when adjusted for inflation and especially when compared to gold. \n\nAnd the real reason we had the dip was sellers front-running the top of the 4-year cycle which invalidated it. IOW, the second order effect of everyone knowing the 4-year cycle was to destroy the cycle. \n\nBut when it happened people thought, \"Of course, it's the cycle\" and expect a two-year bear. So they capitulated early, and the real bull begins as the macro environment turns inflationary and the fundamentals are better than ever. \n\nOf course I could be wrong, but one thing I know for sure is all the clever people telling me it's a bear and breaking out their charts don't know shit, either. \n\nSkate to where the puck is going, not where it's been. ",
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