Comte de Sats Germain on Nostr: 🤔 the war in Iran might not have been the strategic blunder it at first appeared ...

🤔 the war in Iran might not have been the strategic blunder it at first appeared to be.

Iran was supplying shaheds to Russia, and most of the combined output of Russia and Iran was being used in Ukraine - that's somewhere in the range of 3200-3700 drones per month (combined). Ukraine recently passed a macabre milestone in that the number of Russian soldiers killed exceeded the number recruited.

By forcing Iran to use its drones at home, Ukraine **_might_** be under less pressure. It could be like a force multiplier of sorts, amplifying the edge they've gained. And since Russia's tied up in Ukraine, they won't be helping much.

The effect on China is where it really gets interesting. Their Belt and Road project would have made China much less dependent on water shipping, if it completed. Without having to rely on oil shipping, they would be free to attack Taiwan or anyone in the west Pacific. IF the US wins in Iran, cheap Iranian oil will not be flowing to China, via either the land route slightly to their north or via shipping. Expensive oil, sure, but not cheap. China faces a couple of choices here. It could accept the challenge this will pose and continue to wait for monetary problems in the US - some kind of perestroika event is likely, though I see a way it might be delayed. Or they could commit more resources to helping Iran (they have a frigate sitting in the gulf feeding Iran targeting info). Or they could say "F it" and attack Taiwan now, but that will require also attacking Japan.

Now... Its been literally twenty years that I've been watching East Asia with frustration, wondering if they will **_ever_** get over their petty rivalries and form an East Asian Nato... What in fuck does it take for them to see the necessity and do it? Idk. At a minimum, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines need to be in a defense pact, training together, sharing satellites, etc. I've heard South Korea has restarted their nuclear program, BTW. I've also heard there's no way in hell they'll have enough enriched uranium to make any difference by next year, which is when the party is supposed to start.

But anyways, this was supposed to be musings on Iran. It might've been a smart move. Not a moral one... And I absolutely can't turn a blind eye to the idiocy of "decapitation strikes" and "double taps"... Its like our leaders are children and they think it's a video game... But anyways. Finish it fast. And ffs, it doesn't matter if the grand strategy is perfect if you can't control your budget...

Hungry.