peruvian_bull on Nostr: the japanese government itself is doing a $20T carry trade. George Saravelos, the ...
the japanese government itself is doing a $20T carry trade.
George Saravelos, the head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, examined a combined balance sheet of the Japanese government, encompassing the government-managed pension fund GPIF, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and state-owned banks. He examined the asset and liability composition of Japan's $20 trillion debt.
basically this debt is a giant carry trade that involves borrowing yen at the zero bound and buying assets in higher-yielding currencies.
but this means that the government itself is TRAPPED.
"If the central bank raises rates the government will have to start paying money to all the banks and the carry trade's profitability will quickly start unwinding," Deutsche analysts said.
This would result in higher interest payments on bank reserves and a fall in the value of government bonds, along with a reduction in the value of government assets in an environment of rising interest rates.
Potentially causing a financial crisis in Japan on the same level as 2008.
Thus, they can't really afford for their carry trade to blow up in their face. So, they must keep it on, slowly whittling away at their currency.
The BoJ will do Yenterventions to slow the fall, but they'll have to let it fall eventually.
Published at
2024-05-05 19:32:42Event JSON
{
"id": "3ef3010ac4d7db0bdb3fdd614b059ef3ab78fbefe632cea443e2614712b09a54",
"pubkey": "33b6410755319f1b38b9c37c914251c95a8776faecde36cd0fc635c355b073a5",
"created_at": 1714937562,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"imeta",
"url https://image.nostr.build/057edf4af48a1c0bef5137bd69f0410af8310226aac3d8505b3201e2fd7fd779.jpg",
"blurhash erOpS%EgIAWBx[_NVsoyoeV@Mzt7xuWCaysptQs:jYbIg3aLWCbHjZ",
"dim 1690x1046"
],
[
"r",
"https://image.nostr.build/057edf4af48a1c0bef5137bd69f0410af8310226aac3d8505b3201e2fd7fd779.jpg"
]
],
"content": "the japanese government itself is doing a $20T carry trade. \n\nGeorge Saravelos, the head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, examined a combined balance sheet of the Japanese government, encompassing the government-managed pension fund GPIF, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and state-owned banks. He examined the asset and liability composition of Japan's $20 trillion debt.\n\nbasically this debt is a giant carry trade that involves borrowing yen at the zero bound and buying assets in higher-yielding currencies. \n\nbut this means that the government itself is TRAPPED.\n\n\"If the central bank raises rates the government will have to start paying money to all the banks and the carry trade's profitability will quickly start unwinding,\" Deutsche analysts said.\n\nThis would result in higher interest payments on bank reserves and a fall in the value of government bonds, along with a reduction in the value of government assets in an environment of rising interest rates.\n\nPotentially causing a financial crisis in Japan on the same level as 2008. \n\nThus, they can't really afford for their carry trade to blow up in their face. So, they must keep it on, slowly whittling away at their currency.\n\nThe BoJ will do Yenterventions to slow the fall, but they'll have to let it fall eventually. https://image.nostr.build/057edf4af48a1c0bef5137bd69f0410af8310226aac3d8505b3201e2fd7fd779.jpg ",
"sig": "05981f0718ddeddbd38121f619657b2c5fe009b3afe5bb98d54b67be18d9decf2e0ea56f6f366298ed0a21fef2c7f330706ac28ce0738340b669017aa53a62b6"
}
