Generated: Friday, November 6, 2026 — 1:56 PM CT (America/Chicago) · edition #13
SNAPSHOT
- Price now: $75,697
- 6-month low: $58,566 (Jul 1, 2026) · 6-month high: $86,597 (Sep 22, 2026)
- 6-month window: May 8 → Nov 6 · last daily close $75,695 (11-06)
- 12-month context: −33.8% from the 2025-10-27 top ($114,419) · +29.2% off the July low · week −2.8% · 30-day −11.5%
- Last 12 daily closes: 80,049 → 80,029 → 80,801 → 81,274 → 77,839 → 77,275 → 77,521 → 78,294 → 76,709 → 77,385 → 80,443 → 75,695
WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK
- Oct 30 broke the three-week $81.3–84.1K box. This week price chopped between $76.7K and $78.3K, then squeezed to $80,669 on Nov 4 23:00 UTC — briefly reclaiming the True Market Mean ($79,232) and the macro 38.2% ($79,902) — and failed. −5.5% in nine hours back to $76.3K, then a second leg to $75,458 this morning (Nov 6 ~09:00 CT).
- That is a lower high against the Sep 22 top and the second failed reclaim of the $79.2–80.0K gate in eight days. The Oct 30 breakdown is now confirmed, not a one-day flush.
- Spot sits on Z1 and on the 200-day EMA ($75,551) — the only daily average still beneath price.
FIBONACCI LADDERS
- 6-month low $58,566 → spot $75,697 (range $17,129): 23.6% $71,653 · 38.2% $69,152 · 50% $67,131 · 61.8% $65,109 · 78.6% $62,232
- 6-month low $58,566 → 6M high $86,597 (range $28,031): 23.6% $79,982 · 38.2% $75,889 · 50% $72,581 · 61.8% $69,274 · 78.6% $64,565
- Macro decline $114,419 → $58,566 (range $55,853): 23.6% $71,747 · 38.2% $79,902 · 50% $86,493 · 61.8% $93,083
MOVING AVERAGES (daily)
- SMA50 $81,999 · SMA100 $76,949 · SMA200 $73,196
- EMA50 $79,913 · EMA200 $75,551
- Mayer multiple 1.034 (price / SMA200) — mid-cycle, not capitulation
- Price is below SMA50, EMA50 and SMA100; only the EMA200 remains under it, by 0.2%.
TRUE MARKET MEAN & ON-CHAIN (https://bitcoin-data.com, 2026-10-30 prints)
- True Market Mean $79,232: lost Oct 30, failed reclaim Nov 5. The average active holder is underwater by 4.5%.
- Realized price $53,987 (10-30 print, 7-day subscription lag) = the all-holder cost basis / MVRV 1.0 line.
- MVRV 1.4321 (10-30), down from 1.4551 on 10-29 — still well above the 1.0 cycle-low zone.
VOLUME
- Heaviest sessions, last 200 days: Aug 22 $71.5B ($78,318) · Jun 3 $61.8B ($66,727) · Sep 22 $61.3B ($86,597) · Jun 5 $61.0B ($63,811) · Aug 21 $54.6B ($73,021) · May 5 $52.8B ($79,826) · Aug 25 $51.3B ($78,974) · Oct 31 $49.0B ($77,275) · Jun 2 $48.9B ($71,320) · Oct 3 $45.4B ($84,506) · Aug 20 $44.0B ($69,291)
- Today $33.2B against a 30-day median of $27.0B — elevated but ordinary. Nobody has been forced out yet; this is distribution, not capitulation.
- Oct 31's $49.0B at $77,275 is a new overhead node marking the failed-bounce supply shelf.
- Days traded per band (200d): $77–80K 43 · $74–77K 18 · $72–74K 5 · $69–72K 2 · $66–69K 4 · $63–66K 52 · $58–63K 22. The $69–72K air pocket is why a Z2 failure would move fast.
SUPPORT ZONES
| Zone | Range | Anchors |
| Z1 | $75.4–75.9K | Fib 38.2% from 6M high ($75,889) + EMA200 ($75,551) + Apr 19 volume node ($75,716) + round $75K — triple confluence; spot on the floor, intraday low $75,458 |
| Z2 | $72.6–73.2K | Fib 50% from high ($72,581) + SMA200 ($73,196) + Aug 21 volume node ($73,021, $54.6B) — the decision line |
| Z3 | $69.1–71.7K | Fib 61.8% from high ($69,274) + Fib 38.2% from spot ($69,152) + Aug 20 node ($69,291) at the base; macro Fib 23.6% ($71,747) + Fib 23.6% from spot ($71,653) + Jun 2 node ($71,320, $48.9B) at the top — air pocket, only 2 sessions traded here in 200 days |
| Z4 | $65.1–67.1K | Fib 50% from spot ($67,131) + Fib 61.8% from spot ($65,109) + Jun 3 volume node ($66,727, $61.8B) + 52 sessions of June base at $63–66K — first real demand |
| Deep floor | $62.2–64.6K | Fib 78.6% from spot ($62,232) + Fib 78.6% from high ($64,565) + Jun 5 node ($63,811) + July capitulation base |
| Macro floor | $54.0–55.9K | realized price $53,987 (10-30) / MVRV 1.0 |
REASONING
- Z1 ($75.4–75.9K) is the live test. Three independent measures inside 0.4%: the 38.2% retracement of the entire $58,566→$86,597 recovery, the 200-day EMA, and the Apr 19 high-volume node, with round $75K directly beneath. Price has pierced it once intraday ($75,458) and recovered. Confluences this tight either bounce hard or break hard — there is no neutral outcome.
- The SMA100 ($76,949) left the zone and rose above price this week, which is the quiet tell: the 100-day has flipped from support to supply, so bounces now meet a seller at $76.9K rather than a bid.
- Z2 ($72.6–73.2K) is the decision line. The 200-day SMA ($73,196) sits at its top, the sixth-largest volume day of the window (Aug 21, $54.6B) at $73,021, and the 50% retracement of the recovery at $72,581. A daily close under $72.6K formally ends the medium-term uptrend.
- Z3 ($69.1–71.7K) is a Fib cluster with no volume behind it — 2 sessions in 200 days. Treat it as a pause, not a floor. Do not expect the ladder to defend it.
- Z4 ($65.1–67.1K) is the first zone with real demand: the June base traded 52 sessions between $63K and $66K, Jun 3 printed $61.8B at $66,727, and both the 50% and 61.8%-from-spot Fibs land inside. If Z2 goes, this is where buyers historically reappear.
- Deep floor ($62.2–64.6K) stacks the 78.6% retracements of the recovery and the 6M range on the July capitulation base — the last line before a full retest of $58,566.
- Macro floor (~$54.0–55.9K) is aggregate cost basis. MVRV reaching 1.0 there would be a genuine cycle low, not a correction.
KEY WATCH LEVELS (order of decision)
- HOLD: $75,551–75,889 (Z1: EMA200 + Fib 38.2% from the high) → this stays a deep pullback inside an uptrend
- LOSE: daily close under $75.4K → Z2 at $72.6–73.2K comes into play
- BREAK: daily close under $72.6K → correction confirmed; Z3 gap, then Z4 $65.1–67.1K
- RECLAIM: $76,949 SMA100, then $79,232 True Market Mean / $79,902–79,982 macro+Fib gate (where Nov 5 died), then $79,913 EMA50 / $81,999 SMA50
- UPSIDE GATE: $86,597 (6M high) ≈ 50% retracement of the 2025-26 decline ($86,493)
CHANGE SINCE EDITION #12 (Oct 30)
- Spot $76,694 → $75,697 (−1.3%). Z1 narrowed $75.4–76.4K → $75.4–75.9K: SMA100 rose $76,147 → $76,949 and left the zone above price; EMA200 slipped $76,359 → $75,551, so the confluence is now EMA200 + Fib 38.2% + Apr 19 node.
- Z2 widened $72.4–73.1K → $72.6–73.2K as SMA200 rose $73,118 → $73,196 and the Fib 50%-from-high fell $72,581 into it.
- Z3 rebuilt from the $69.3–69.8K shelf to the full air pocket $69.1–71.7K, absorbing the $71.3–71.7K cluster (macro Fib 23.6%, Fib 23.6%-from-spot, Jun 2 node).
- Z4 tightened $65.5–67.6K → $65.1–67.1K as the from-spot Fibs fell ($67,630 → $67,131; $65,491 → $65,109). Deep floor $62.4–64.6K → $62.2–64.6K.
- On-chain advanced off the 10-23 prints: realized $53,704 → $53,987 · TMM $79,631 → $79,232 · MVRV 1.4551 → 1.4321.
- SMA50 $81,890 → $81,999 · EMA50 $80,499 → $79,913 · Mayer 1.049 → 1.034.
- The 200-day volume window rolled: Apr 18–20 nodes aged out; Oct 31's $49.0B at $77,275 entered as fresh overhead supply.
SOURCES & LIMITS
- Generated by bitboy from live CoinGecko daily history (200 bars, 2026-04-21 → 2026-11-06), the 7-day hourly path, and live simple/price at 2026-11-06 13:56 CT; on-chain from https://bitcoin-data.com. Moneyman owns the analysis cadence — this edition filled a generation slot with no Moneyman refresh.
- Realized price, TMM and MVRV all carry the 10-30 subscription print (7-day lag). Today's volume is intraday and still running.
- Volume is exchange volume, not on-chain transfer volume.
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