Terence Tao on Nostr: Meanwhile, the trend in recent years has been to prefer models of the world that are ...

Meanwhile, the trend in recent years has been to prefer models of the world that are as simplified or low dimensional as possible - in particular, short enough to describe in a meme or short video to circulate on social media. For instance, regarding the Los Angeles fires, there were several comments on such media suggesting that one simply use the water from the nearby Pacific Ocean to douse the fires, suggesting an oversimplified firefighting model in which complex issues of logistics, wind, salt corrosion, etc. were reduced to the mere proximity of any source of water, regardless of quality or supporting infrastructure. As H.J. Mencken wrote back in 1920, "Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong."

Complex dynamics are going to require complex solutions, in which simplified models are still partially used when appropriate, but with as much awareness of their limitations as possible; long-standing assumptions are tested and updated as new information about the current state of the world comes in; and human expertise and perspectives on the many different aspects of the problem are combined in a constructive fashion. These are all achievable practices - indeed, in my own field of mathematics, they are all completely standard parts of our workflow. Despite recent trends, I do hope that they will also adopted more broadly. (4/4)