According to a paper published in 2015, WeChat user growth over time followed a Power Law with an exponent of 2.15
It showed that its growth is more closely followed by a Power Law than an exponential. I thought i'd be cool to see if Nostr's growth can be modelled as a Power Law too.
Taking the 6 month data on daily active users from nostr.band (npub1sx9…6g8m) and fitting a power law on it, we get an exponent of 2.415 and an R2 of 0.569
For the model I assumed the first day being December 15th 2020, around the time of the first Nostr note, and removed outliers.
The R2 is not very high, but the fit is visually promising. Still, it's too little data to really see if it's a good fit.
To do a proper fit, it'd be ideal to get the historical data for Nostr's entire history, assuming the same TrustRank applied by nostr.band (npub1sx9…6g8m)
If anyone has older data (even partial) using the same TrustRank, shoot me a DM!
