JackMDurden on Nostr: Every halving cycle has played out the same: crash, capitulation, "Bitcoin is dead," ...

Every halving cycle has played out the same: crash, capitulation, "Bitcoin is dead," then a new all-time high. Here is the trend:

1. $152 (Jan 2015) → ATH $19,800 (Dec 2017) — +12,926%

2. 3,122 (Dec 2018) → ATH $69,000 (Nov 2021) — +2,110%

3. 15,476 (Nov 2022) → ATH $126,296 (Oct 2025) — +716%

4. ~$50,000 (~2026) → Est. ATH $250,000 (~2029) — +400%

The last halving happened April 2024, daily production was 900 BTC, dropped to 450 BTC per day. The next halving is projected for April 2028, slashing daily production from ~450 BTC to ~225 BTC per day. While 2,000 to 4,500 BTC are accumulated on average daily.

The basis trade following the ETF launch in January 2024 is unwinding after more than 2 years, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC are on the rise, and exchange reserves have hit a 7 year low.

What do you think happens next?