brockm on Nostr: People really over-estimate the decline of the dollar in these conversations. While ...

People really over-estimate the decline of the dollar in these conversations. While it's true that there's been quite a steep decline in the use of US Treasuries on central bank balance sheets, and that makes for exciting charts about the impending collapse of the USD, there's a problem: it's only part of the story.

If you look at reserves that are dollar-denominated. Including cash, t-bills, etc. you actually find that the decline of dollar *usage* has been far less pronounced. In fact, by this measure, dollar dominance has been *increasing* for the past two years.

While it goes without saying that much of the world would like to get off the dollar, and I actually think that would be *good* for America by making US exports more competitive, and allowing the US to re-enter the game of mass manufacturing, I think rapid dedollarization is not in the cards in the short-to-medium term.