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2024-11-20 08:18:45 UTC
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Joe Roe on Nostr: nprofile1q…7h94j Interesting, I've never though about assessing the probability ...

Interesting, I've never though about assessing the probability that way around before. It would be quite straightforward to do it with a date calibrated in R or Python (like the one in the image). For example, in R:

Ua75650 <- c14::c14_calibrate(1116, 30)

Ua75650[[1]] |>
dplyr::filter(age <= 1060, age > 970) |> # 890–980 AD
dplyr::pull(pdens) |>
sum()
#> [1] 0.8014018

So 80.1%

OxCal is great software, but people do tend to treat it as a black box...