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2026-03-25 15:01:17 UTC

CITADELWIRE on Nostr: 2026-03-25 15:00 UTC | BLOCK 942169 BITCOIN $71,220 | GOLD $4,564 1. Iran offers ...

2026-03-25 15:00 UTC | BLOCK 942169

BITCOIN $71,220 | GOLD $4,564

1. Iran offers Hormuz transit for non-hostile vessels
-- FT: Tehran signals willingness to allow shipping through strait; Trump said Iran "talking sense" on negotiations.
-- First crack in 100% Hormuz closure since war began; oil at $90.98, Wall Street opened higher Wednesday on de-escalation hopes.

2. Washington sends 15-point peace proposal to Iran
-- Reuters: formal diplomatic framework delivered as Pentagon simultaneously deploys thousands more troops to region.
-- Most concrete negotiation architecture of the four-week war; ceasefire odds at 11%, ultimatum on power grid strikes expires ~March 28.

3. Equities rally into contradictory war signals
-- Reuters: Wall Street opened sharply higher Wednesday on Hormuz relief; 10-year yield eased from 4.44% to 4.34%.
-- Rally built on unverified diplomacy while 2,000 paratroopers deploy and Lebanon ground offensive at 100% by March 31; fragility extreme.

4. Five-year inflation breakeven hits 13-month high
-- Deloitte: bond market pricing persistent war-driven inflation; 60% probability Fed holds rates all of 2026.
-- Structural inflation expectations hardening beyond oil; BlackRock confirms rate cuts "evaporated," multiple hikes priced in UK and Europe.

5. Bitcoin holds $71K as war's sole surviving asset
-- Gold worst week since 1983, Treasuries broken per BlackRock, equities at four-week lows before today's bounce.
-- Miners $17K underwater at $88K production cost signals cycle capitulation; CLARITY Act signing eyed April 3 as first regulatory catalyst.