The most interesting thing about the by-election result is, to me, where the swing came from:
A couple of days ago, the Greens were polling at 32%, Labour at 29%. In the final result, the Greens got 41%, Labour 26%.
That’s not a load of Labour voters voting tactically. That’s a load of undecided voters deciding to vote for a candidate, rather than feeling disenfranchised.
This is what I have been saying for almost 30 years is the outcome of major parties believing Duverger's law is a real thing. And, yes, I am still bitter that I got a poor mark for my Politics A-Level essay that predicted *exactly* this phenomenon (which isn’t hard because it had happened multiple times before in the 20th century, yet the curriculum still teaches Duverger's law as if it isn’t a pile of nonsense).
David Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)
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2026-02-27 08:51:43 UTC
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