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2025-01-21 04:23:44 UTC

Chris Trottier on Nostr: Here's the big picture as far as Fediverse MAUs are concerned. This chart shows the ...

Here's the big picture as far as Fediverse MAUs are concerned.

This chart shows the past 24 months. It's not entirely accurate because it's not displaying the current month correctly. However, it's the general ballpark.

The Fediverse's high point was in July 2023 when it hit 2.3M MAUs. From there, it fell. Why is this? Four reasons:

1. Bluesky and Threads were growing at the expense of the Fediverse
2. Big Social didn't do much to piss off users
2. Progressives thought Biden or Harris would win the Presidency
4. No big releases happened on the Fediverse

Contrast this with now. Bluesky and Threads are still growing, but people are becoming more cynical about them. Big Social, specifically Meta and X, are pissing off users quite a bit. Trump won the Presidency. There were more big releases of Fediverse software this month than the entirety of 2024.

Now current MAUs of 1.2M is nothing compared to July 2023. However, it's certainly more than 869K during October 2024.

Remember when I said that growth of the Fediverse is asynchronous, and largely depends on dissatisfaction with Big Social? Here it happened again.

If we don't want this ongoing hamster wheel of asynchronicity -- depending on dissatisfaction of Big Social to grow the Fediverse -- someone needs to make a completely innovative and novel social media concept for the Fediverse. That is, one that is not a clone of an existing service.