ArnGrimR Jarl 🎖 on Nostr: That works well for simple situations, but begins to fail, sometimes spectacularly ...

That works well for simple situations, but begins to fail, sometimes spectacularly so, when applied to complex historical events, where multiple causes, uncertainties, and competing dynamics are involved and different interpretations can exist together, even when they appear to contradict each other when forced into a single causal chain.