Top economist: More people are looking for a job, but not because they were laid off
==========
The recent rise in unemployment in the US is due to an immigration surge, not widespread job cuts, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. The unemployment rate has increased to 4.3% because there are more workers, not fewer jobs. Layoffs have been relatively flat for the year, with June having the lowest number of layoffs. The rise in unemployment is a result of a rise in labor supply due to rising immigration. In 2022, net immigration to the US was 2.6 million people, and in 2023, it jumped to 3.3 million. The uptick in immigration has helped cool an overheated labor market but has also reduced wage growth. The recent round of employment data triggered the Sahm rule, indicating the start of a recession, but economists argue that the rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell recommends looking at the totality of the data, which still shows a solid economy. However, there are some changes in consumer behavior, such as wobbly retail spending and rising credit card delinquencies, that indicate tougher economic times could be coming.
#Economy #Recession #Unemployment #Immigration #Jobs
https://fortune.com/2024/08/07/economy-recession-unemployment-inflation-federal-reserve-apollo-immigration-jobs/
Fortune /
npub1v7…9v0r4
2024-08-07 18:33:22
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npub1v7hvaa8pv7g92sr6na55dtzaxmrrsgddxkhst3e8atw4nxusm37sg9v0r4Published at
2024-08-07 18:33:22Event JSON
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"content": "Top economist: More people are looking for a job, but not because they were laid off\n==========\n\nThe recent rise in unemployment in the US is due to an immigration surge, not widespread job cuts, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. The unemployment rate has increased to 4.3% because there are more workers, not fewer jobs. Layoffs have been relatively flat for the year, with June having the lowest number of layoffs. The rise in unemployment is a result of a rise in labor supply due to rising immigration. In 2022, net immigration to the US was 2.6 million people, and in 2023, it jumped to 3.3 million. The uptick in immigration has helped cool an overheated labor market but has also reduced wage growth. The recent round of employment data triggered the Sahm rule, indicating the start of a recession, but economists argue that the rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell recommends looking at the totality of the data, which still shows a solid economy. However, there are some changes in consumer behavior, such as wobbly retail spending and rising credit card delinquencies, that indicate tougher economic times could be coming.\n\n#Economy #Recession #Unemployment #Immigration #Jobs\n\nhttps://fortune.com/2024/08/07/economy-recession-unemployment-inflation-federal-reserve-apollo-immigration-jobs/",
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