OK, this is the most profound forward looking thing that’s occurred to me in the past 6 months.
For 30 years big tech is built on B2C models that leverage the enormous surface of the internet. Build 1 good monetisation channel and just scale it to 10^9 people.
But AI is not like this. Not at all.
AI is a solution to the sprawling complexity of discrete connections that network throughout the entire economy. It is 10^6 monetisation channels each occurring 10^3 instances.
To win this space you need a B2B biz model and you need legendary workflow management.
This makes it much easier to filter out winners and losers over the next 10 years.
I actually think ChatGPT will disappear as it’s a loss leader product and only the OpenAI API will survive, but it will have to compete with a bunch of other API’s and local models.
I think it’s obvious that the end state is local AI. There will be a day when training peaks and then terminally declines as economics is the real law of the jungle.
Chasing diminishing returns is simply not worth the cost. There is no free lunch here.
Stu / ⚡️🌱🌙
npub1w4…zprhz
2023-11-29 11:55:08
Author Public Key
npub1w4swqedal6gcw23ndd93tkkdy3zj2l6zjdjvzrhu8rnw0k8lc8lswzprhzPublished at
2023-11-29 11:55:08Event JSON
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"content": "OK, this is the most profound forward looking thing that’s occurred to me in the past 6 months.\n\nFor 30 years big tech is built on B2C models that leverage the enormous surface of the internet. Build 1 good monetisation channel and just scale it to 10^9 people.\n\nBut AI is not like this. Not at all.\n\nAI is a solution to the sprawling complexity of discrete connections that network throughout the entire economy. It is 10^6 monetisation channels each occurring 10^3 instances.\n\nTo win this space you need a B2B biz model and you need legendary workflow management.\n\nThis makes it much easier to filter out winners and losers over the next 10 years.\n\nI actually think ChatGPT will disappear as it’s a loss leader product and only the OpenAI API will survive, but it will have to compete with a bunch of other API’s and local models.\n\nI think it’s obvious that the end state is local AI. There will be a day when training peaks and then terminally declines as economics is the real law of the jungle. \n\nChasing diminishing returns is simply not worth the cost. There is no free lunch here.",
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