lupin on Nostr: Some insight from Craig Tapping (on FB): „Bitcoin Cycles: Forget the 4 Year Myth. ...

Some insight from Craig Tapping (on FB):

„Bitcoin Cycles: Forget the 4 Year Myth. Follow the Liquidity.

For years, the dominant narrative has been the “Bitcoin 4 year cycle” tied to halvings.

It sounds clean. It feels predictable. It gives people comfort. But when you step back and overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the pattern becomes much clearer and far more powerful.

Now let’s break this down properly.

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1. Market Tops: Liquidity Tightening, Not Halvings

Look at the major cycle peaks:
* 2013–2014
* 2017–2018
* 2021–2022

Each of these tops formed as:
* Inflation became overheated
* QE stopped
* Central Banks switched back to QT
* Liquidity rolled over

That is the consistent pattern.

Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge. When global liquidity contracts, speculative assets struggle. Every single major top aligns with tightening conditions.

It is not the halving that kills the bull run.
It is the withdrawal of liquidity.
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2. Mid Cycle Corrections: The Liquidity Pivot

Now look at the mid cycle drawdowns:
* 2015 correction: roughly 48%
* 2019–2020 correction: roughly 72%
* Current drawdown: roughly 52%

What happened during those moments?
Central Banks ended QT.
Liquidity stopped falling.
A transition toward QE began.

These corrections were violent, but they happened at liquidity inflection points.

That matters. These were not random crashes. They were liquidity resets inside broader expansion cycles.
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3. The Real Driver: QE vs QT

QE expands the monetary base.
QT contracts it.

Bitcoin thrives when:
* Liquidity expands
* Financial conditions ease
* Risk appetite increases

Bitcoin struggles when:
* Liquidity contracts
* Yields rise
* Risk assets get repriced

When you overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the correlation is hard to ignore.

This is not about a calendar.
It is about capital flows.
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4. The Critical Question Now

The real question is not:
“Is the 4 year cycle broken?”

The real question is:
Will Central Banks turn the liquidity taps back on like they did in:
* 2012–2013
* 2016–2017
* 2020–2021

If we see a shift from QT back into meaningful QE, history suggests Bitcoin and the broader crypto market respond aggressively.

If liquidity remains tight, rallies may be capped and volatility may persist.
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5. Strategic Takeaway

If you are serious about understanding Bitcoin’s macro structure, you cannot just count waves or track halvings.

You need to watch:
* Central Bank balance sheets
* Global liquidity aggregates
* Treasury issuance and absorption
* Real rates
* Dollar strength

Bitcoin is maturing. It is no longer purely a retail driven narrative asset. It is increasingly sensitive to global liquidity cycles.

The next major move will not be decided by a block reward reduction.

It will be decided by liquidity.

That is what determines whether this current drawdown is a mid cycle correction… or something larger.

And that is where your focus should be.“