<oembed><type>rich</type><version>1.0</version><title>LynAlden wrote</title><author_name>LynAlden (npub1a2…cw83a)</author_name><author_url>https://yabu.me/npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a</author_url><provider_name>njump</provider_name><provider_url>https://yabu.me</provider_url><html>One of the crazy things about AI and robotics is that in the year 2025, most people still don&#39;t use Roombas or other robotic vacuum cleaners.&#xA;&#xA;They&#39;re useful in many contexts, but they&#39;re not clearly better across most metrics than a human with a vacuum cleaner yet. They&#39;ve been out for a very long time, gradually improving. And that&#39;s one *very specific* task with pretty clear visualization requirements and floor mobility requirements and pretty low safety thresholds with high repetition levels, and yet that market isn&#39;t dominated by robotics yet.&#xA;&#xA;That&#39;s an example of why I continue to view white collar computer-work AI as being *way* ahead of in-the-field blue collar robotic AI in terms of competing with human jobs.&#xA;&#xA;The moment where it&#39;s a joke to buy a human-powered vacuum instead of a robot vacuum, rather than a debatable trade-off, is kind of the canary in the coal mine moment for consumer robotics. We can&#39;t even nail that yet, but once we do, it&#39;s kind of a floodgate moment, considering how long that task has been in the works for, and it will probably quickly expand to other areas following that moment.&#xA;&#xA;That&#39;s kind of my basic test for robot hype. Yes, they&#39;re getting better and better. Yes, they do backflips now. Yes, it&#39;s a big deal. But in-the-field blue collar skilled work is a really high bar, and we haven&#39;t fully cleared the &#34;vacuum carpeted areas of the same house floor area over and over&#34; stage of that yet.&#xA;&#xA;Everything is kind of hype until that stage is fully breached. Then it&#39;s off to the races.&#xA;&#xA;What&#39;s your view of that  heuristic? </html></oembed>