<oembed><type>rich</type><version>1.0</version><title>Mike Dilger ☑️ wrote</title><author_name>Mike Dilger ☑️ (npub1ac…9p35c)</author_name><author_url>https://yabu.me/npub1acg6thl5psv62405rljzkj8spesceyfz2c32udakc2ak0dmvfeyse9p35c</author_url><provider_name>njump</provider_name><provider_url>https://yabu.me</provider_url><html>For Ukraine to come out of this war OK, it needs to take some kind of action or actions that cause Russia to stop attacking it and stop capturing it&#39;s land.&#xA;&#xA;Maybe that action is a negotiated agreement.&#xA;Maybe that action is some kind of well designed military strikes.&#xA;&#xA;But whatever actions are taken, they must not cause Russia to feel that it is under an existential threat.  Attacks that disable Russia&#39;s ability to defend itself against other worldwide nuclear powers, like against its first-strike radar (as was done), or its nuclear bombers (as was done), may cause Russia to take the severe action of disabling Ukraine for good.&#xA;&#xA;Attacking Ukraine with nuclear weapons probably would not cause NATO powers to strike Russia with nuclear weapons, because that would be well known as the MAD ending. Russia doesn&#39;t want to hit Ukraine with nukes.  But it becomes their best strategic choice as soon as Ukraine effectively disables their ability to retaliate against a nuclear attack.  Was this attack on the bombers such a thing?  Probably not.  But it&#39;s definitely encroaching on that territory.&#xA;&#xA;If Russia nuked Ukraine in retaliation for the attack on their bombers, I&#39;m not sure there is any way Ukraine or NATO could effectively respond.  And that makes it strategically viable for Russia to do it, whereas yesterday it wasn&#39;t.  And that is why I mentioned earlier that Ukraine making it&#39;s last moves was strategically &#34;questionable&#34;.&#xA;&#xA;Daring them is dumb. You will think you are winning until the day you lose catastrophically. Like double-or-nothing on the roulette table.</html></oembed>