<oembed><type>rich</type><version>1.0</version><title>ᛗᛁᛗᛁᚱ wrote</title><author_name>ᛗᛁᛗᛁᚱ (npub1m4…m6s89)</author_name><author_url>https://yabu.me/npub1m4kqpr6q9cdvvdv3pa0tmy3upm7qdlh2h9085sj3394sm97peyjs0m6s89</author_url><provider_name>njump</provider_name><provider_url>https://yabu.me</provider_url><html>📐 ₿itcoin&#39;s True Volatility Structure — σ(t) = σ_floor + A × t^(−β)&#xA;&#xA;NETWORK SIGMA σ(t) = 40.68%&#xA;CURRENT DVOL = 39.81%&#xA;Spread: -0.87pp | 🟠 FAIR — no structural edge&#xA;&#xA;HV90: 36.59% | Peak: 174.21% | Floor: 20.68%&#xA;🌀 Coil: 90% compressed&#xA;&#xA;VERY CHEAP  🟩  ← −8pp&#xA;CHEAP       🟢  −3 to −8pp&#xA;FAIR        🟠  ±3pp&#xA;RICH        🔴  +3 to +10pp&#xA;VERY RICH   🟥  → +10pp&#xA;&#xA;BTC&#39;s structural vol at current network maturity — it doesn&#39;t panic, it doesn&#39;t chase.&#xA;&#xA;σ(t) = σ_floor + A × t^(−β)&#xA;&#xA;Where:&#xA;σ_floor = 0.2068 (≈21%) — the empirical vol floor. The lowest HV90 ever recorded across ~4,100 rolling 90-day windows spanning Dec 2014 to May 2026.&#xA;&#xA;A = 13.00 — the immaturity premium. Calibrated from median HV90 across the ETF era (Jan 2024–present). Fixed constant.&#xA;&#xA;β = 1.461 — the decay rate. How fast the immaturity premium burns off.&#xA;&#xA;t = network age in years from BTC genesis (Jan 3, 2009).&#xA;&#xA;Calibrated: σ(t) = 0.21 + 13.00 × t^(−1.461)&#xA;&#xA;NetworkSigma moves ~0.06pp per year. DVOL moves that in minutes. The spread between them tells you when implied vol is cheap, fair, or rich relative to realized structure.&#xA;&#xA;The 🌀 Coil tracks HV90 compression from its all-time peak toward the vol floor. 0% = HV90 at peak (fully expanded). 100% = HV90 at floor (maximum compression). Historically, every floor touch preceded a regime-changing move.&#xA;&#xA;Vol floor + NetworkSigma + Coil framework (askHVtobidIV/Mimir) ✅&#xA;β decay via SAOM (Koskela/Perrenod)&#xA;↳SSRN Research Paper #6666259 ✅&#xA;#AskMimir | #NoSlop</html></oembed>