<oembed><type>rich</type><version>1.0</version><title>D day wrote</title><author_name>D day (npub1sl…jhazx)</author_name><author_url>https://yabu.me/npub1slszh6dw8z28g23lahdzu6envadkg2qqvvat33avrgcx7yr6eqwq3jhazx</author_url><provider_name>njump</provider_name><provider_url>https://yabu.me</provider_url><html>老蛮搬运&#xA;&#xA;看历史，我们总对一些蠢死的关键决定扼腕叹息。&#xA;&#xA;但是结合当时真实的决策环境，却能看清，这是当时不得不，最优，且唯一解。&#xA;&#xA;比如唐末，逼着哥舒翰痛哭出潼关。&#xA;唐军当时的后勤补给和军费紧迫性，以及这支部队的“成份”，唐末军队开拔前的潜规则了解一下。&#xA;&#xA;没人是傻子，古人能从中低层一路爬，当上大官的更极小概率是傻子。&#xA;&#xA;现在人除了可以有渠道获取当时决策者无法获得的更多信息，避免关键信息不足导致的误判。&#xA;以及前人试错确定可以排除的道路可能，纯脑子上，真不见得谁比谁聪明。&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jupyk67eakmql5qillndsh4gww7a/production/bb04891da88634f51e6778639d648933a71ef35e2d9b0eb9c8371abd282ea2bb.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvhrazjerqxoadqmrcywxlhmlkca/production/2536dc7af9ac80e54877bc71a953ce8a5dcbabbf6a52c274f7718bcea3b2f7f9.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jubsnnls6c2d3fxij44ax2lupc2a/production/a43cecfb1918282342776565e1816cf168edc03ad99770e3052c557abc56d6a3.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvrtw7fhbk3bojkq44youktcvnrq/production/d7adacafbe665d239e284e59311b6b13d3baa225f8e767f28df6c18d902b2644.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jwihwlmgpfcipeaawjftarguzcbq/production/978bc3e317b9e10f02a01e5b33cb1c76d32ef0a73c0c268df0d659599f1768f6.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvjoriblgqxyrzp4oju6acmezera/production/16c564346ef6d5816fbd2141747fcb267be432dea4122fa94aa25ec8f63ff317.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jxlp3kfw6c6jsl26q27p4v22m7qa/production/95abdea4ba9416630879d8633b799cc44af5e8a78aa6b00872bc0b4c5802b129.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/juybuooudsn3xz5rgo67swj3ojmq/production/e7cdec06f5b4422c2a1d172c19797fb8846ec5fe41e9b564d986a67296001606.JPG&#xA;https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jugiyheo52l55mdb3hrfwlxzccda/production/5e578e35ef2779c66bc800f0a573c759a410bf387784b32c0eca8c4a95e949d5.JPG</html></oembed>