{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","title":"Rune Østgård wrote","author_name":"Rune Østgård (npub1sv…tsrw4)","author_url":"https://yabu.me/npub1sv4zk080fvt4f3982u5kffzdkex3nm0kylky29um2xws5h4wsxvswtsrw4","provider_name":"njump","provider_url":"https://yabu.me","html":"I'm struggling with understanding Michael Saylor's base case of 14 million USD per bitcoin in 2045.\n\nHe says that Bitcoin's market cap represents 0.1% of total global wealth today (relative market cap), while his base case scenario assumes that this goes to 7%, which is a 70-fold increase.\n\nIf we look at the historical annual average increase of the money supply USD, we know that it's about 7%.\n\nIf the money supply continues to increase at this rate, it means that in 21 years the amount of money has more than quadruppeled (≈ 4.3).\n\nToday the price of one bitcoin is 63,000 USD.\n\n4.3 x 63,000 USD ≈ 270.000, which represents the M2 adjusted (monetary inflation adjusted) price over a 21 year period.\n\nSaylor's base case of 14 mill USD represents 52 x today's price, adjusted for the increase of the monetary supply.\n\nI don't understand how a base case of 70-fold increase of Bitcoin's relative market cap translates into just a 52-fold increase in the real, M2-adjusted price.\n\nWouldn't it be logical that the real, M2-adjusted bitcoin price increased more than Bitcoin's relative market cap?\n\nAfter all, we're talking about an asset with absolute scarcity, while global wealth, on the other hand, normally would grow.\n\nWhat am I missing here?"}