Nostr notes by JackMDurden

Nostr event nevent1qqs9c6n9xd6l3lp080xmcu8r0q9hldwatgk73uecf4dpel8u608phlqzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted52hfegs

2026-06-25T19:25:07Z

In reply to nevent1q…sxht
_________________________

Father's Day. Wife took the kids to Costco and told me to do ...

2026-06-25T13:17:24Z

Father's Day. Wife took the kids to Costco and told me to do whatever I wanted.

I made a coffee, finished a draft, then went for a run. Already lifted that morning. Knackered. Hot. Didn't care.

On the other side of a bridge over the river the dirt trail opens up. Gravel. Dirt. Sun. Shade. Three miles or ten. No agenda. Shirt off. Nowhere to be.

That feeling is freedom. Not the concept. The actual physical sensation of it.

I used to not have this. Everything I write about is the distance between the person who does and doesn't.

https://moralfiber.substack.com/p/i-decided-im-winning

#bitcoin #grownostr

Nostr event nevent1qqs0yzms6a6e525rz75xq3t8j366lq4vz2lk2grj2unqp2wj0440gdgzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted54zyuzf

2026-06-25T01:40:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…hx5j
_________________________

It’s self fulfilling until it isn’t, then what do you think ...

2026-06-22T15:24:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…6gcq
_________________________

It’s self fulfilling until it isn’t, then what do you think happens?

Alphabet recently raised $85B in equity. Largest offering ever. ...

2026-06-22T15:18:12Z

Alphabet recently raised $85B in equity. Largest offering ever. The four hyperscalers are guiding to $700-725B in 2026 capex, up 70%+ from last year.

Nobody adjusts that for input cost inflation. A power transformer that cost $3M in 2020 costs $5.4M now. Lead times hit 210 weeks.

Every party in this chain gets paid more the longer the spending continues. Hardware manufacturers, construction firms, utilities, executives, analysts. Nobody gets paid to say slow down.

This is moral hazard before the correction, not conspiracy.

The people profiting won't tell you when the wheels come off.

https://moralfiber.substack.com/p/who-will-be-holding-the-bag-when

#bitcoin #grownostr

Math is worse probably only 5%

2026-06-16T14:13:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…65rw
_________________________

Math is worse probably only 5%

Import and export price indexes May 2026: The last time the ...

2026-06-16T13:27:30Z

Import and export price indexes May 2026: The last time the pipeline looked like this, the Fed had to hike rates from 1.75% to 5.25% in 16 months to drag CPI from 9.1% back to 3%, and Warsh walks into his first FOMC meeting this week with a president demanding rate cuts, an energy war with no exit ramp, and producer prices screaming that the worst of it hasn't hit the consumer yet. Going to get interesting from here.

Holy shitballs, PPI pipeline on fire, this is 2021 all over ...

2026-06-11T13:25:38Z

Holy shitballs, PPI pipeline on fire, this is 2021 all over again…

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/producer-price-indexes-may-2026

For anyone living on a paycheck, buying groceries, filling a gas ...

2026-06-10T12:58:53Z

For anyone living on a paycheck, buying groceries, filling a gas tank, and paying an electric bill, inflation is not under control. The math is simple. Prices up 4.2%. Wages up 3.4%. The difference compounds every month.

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/consumer-price-index-may-2026?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

Nominal wages go up. Prices go up faster. The paycheck grows. The ...

2026-06-10T12:58:06Z

Nominal wages go up. Prices go up faster. The paycheck grows. The purchasing power shrinks. The headline says raise. The math says pay cut.

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/real-earnings-may-2026

I love living in a neighborhood where all the Dad’s yell slow ...

2026-06-09T15:41:48Z

I love living in a neighborhood where all the Dad’s yell slow down at cars passing through. Slow down.

The potential sitting inside the average person is staggering and ...

2026-06-07T13:02:09Z

The potential sitting inside the average person is staggering and most of it is being drained through their eyeballs into a phone.
The process has no attention. Only the outcome does. That’s the clue and the only thing worth protecting.
https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/sunday-coffee-6726-attention-is-all
#bitcoin #grownostr

Good question, I’ll bet on Bitcoin fixed supply over fiat wages

2026-06-05T21:17:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…af5w
_________________________

Good question, I’ll bet on Bitcoin fixed supply over fiat wages

Two BLS reports this week tell the same story. Productivity up, ...

2026-06-05T15:52:26Z

Two BLS reports this week tell the same story. Productivity up, labor share at a 79-year low, real wages falling. Then today: 172K jobs added, almost all in the lowest-paid sectors. Long-term unemployed up 524K over the year. The economy produces more with less and the gains go to capital. The 4.3% headline is a mask. Build accordingly. #bitcoin #grownostr
https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/part-2-the-employment-situation-may

Bunch of babies around here, worst time ever? Bitcoin is on fire ...

2026-06-05T15:12:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…ma0w
_________________________

Bunch of babies around here, worst time ever? Bitcoin is on fire sale and everyone is complaining, get it together guys, zoom out.

Labor share of output just hit 53.7%. Lowest since 1947. Economy ...

2026-06-04T13:14:26Z

Labor share of output just hit 53.7%. Lowest since 1947. Economy grew output 3.2% with 0.4% more hours. Real compensation fell. Manufacturing is producing more with fewer people for six years running. The productivity gains are real. They’re going to capital, not labor. Nobody is coming to fix this for you. #bitcoin #grownostr
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf

Truth

2026-06-04T02:38:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…m9u3
_________________________

Truth

The 21 million is the answer. Credit money survives because it ...

2026-06-03T14:27:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…p9c3
_________________________

The 21 million is the answer. Credit money survives because it can always be diluted, the margin call never fully arrives because the escape valve is always open. Bitcoin closes the valve permanently. Digital credit faces the same margin call as analog credit the moment people understand that 21 million means no bailout, no expansion, no escape. Decentralization and security are the enforcement mechanism. The fixed supply is the sentence.

Time will tell, I’m confident in the the network

2026-06-03T04:04:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…0xq3
_________________________

Time will tell, I’m confident in the the network

BLS Q4 2025 wage data dropped today. The headline is +4.2%. ...

2026-06-03T04:01:24Z

BLS Q4 2025 wage data dropped today. The headline is +4.2%. Sounds decent.

Strip out tech and finance and the economy regular people actually live in is growing at +2.5%. Against inflation still running hot on housing, food, energy, and insurance. The average household is losing ground every single month.

Politicians in 78 jurisdictions blocked $64 billion in data center construction. Their voters got a press conference. The jobs, the construction wages, and the property tax base went to the counties that said yes instead.
Nobody will be held accountable for the jobs that were never created. That’s moral hazard.
#bitcoin #grownostr

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/the-map-is-being-redrawn-while-the

The job is temporary. The skills are permanent. Build skills that ...

2026-06-03T03:39:48Z

The job is temporary. The skills are permanent. Build skills that travel, not loyalty to an organization that would restructure you out tomorrow without blinking. #bitcoin #grownostr

MSTR is likely to have 1 million Bitcoin before the end of this ...

2026-05-31T16:04:47Z

MSTR is likely to have 1 million Bitcoin before the end of this year at the current rate of accumulation…

Nostr event nevent1qqsvcavk3ntsnpgkxd99dstm7ae3pwk7l02vrp8axn8w56549k346jqzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5m2qcvf

2026-05-31T15:59:41Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/mf-sunday-coffee-weekly-content-recap-9e5?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

Nostr event nevent1qqsd0yp9gj0l6k2gwadxlr2n5pjehp5r40e3y36vqypwc26mcz7xlqqzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted59c95ed

2026-05-29T13:29:13Z

Nostr event nevent1qqsyk0tf388ynuexx6ycemypttt0nwpprwxxrqkt3766cd7a5afkv6szyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5h34tqd

2026-05-29T13:28:32Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/mediocrity-the-disease-nobody-wants?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=title

Nostr event nevent1qqst6xe96mtgvq6avw4gnejh4mem9pqenes2ml2fj7j2aammgnvygaszyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted57dhp6y

2026-05-26T14:13:04Z

Nostr event nevent1qqsryulzyecfv24eg3jvpxcmfmzfv7hflx2pglmrsulvyprsle9p3rszyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted54jdc3p

2026-05-25T15:53:16Z

Nostr event nevent1qqsf39zutjhem7vzgzcnygyaqytsq4uemw700rvxzql5wqaccr76fqczyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5qy55cd

2026-05-23T01:13:45Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/orange-pill-the-question-nobody-asks

Nostr event nevent1qqsdt3zkpgvs4h82fqn5hstdkdh9anl8t0hyvw455z2nkv7t6kxz0vczyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5r0ayle

2026-05-17T16:27:52Z

Nostr event nevent1qqs99amyxeupnzwgm3tavvv3s5hkcprh8sj4hkyp2k5ezutc8puuulgzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5t8p89w

2026-05-17T00:35:26Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/21-hard-things-that-make-life-easy

Nostr event nevent1qqsfujr8vrk8r2069jyz4lnr377rpefxaetqvnvpj4vv4zp5hhdzp3szyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5sdr7p2

2026-05-15T13:49:03Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/vision-a-letter-to-my-kids

This man deserves recognition. Not for saving the economy. Not ...

2026-05-14T12:50:39Z

This man deserves recognition. Not for saving the economy. Not for refusing to bend to political pressure.

Having the resolve to show up every day, do the right thing, tune out the noise, and remain a good person while the entire world screamed at him from every direction.

You can criticize his actions. You can say he didn't do enough or did too much. You can blame him for whatever you need a person to blame for.

But the man showed up every day for 8 years. Never raised his voice. Never retaliated. Remained calm and did his job. Took the hits from every side and never once broke character.

That's not politics. That's conviction.

Respect.

"There was a saying from John Adams in 1776, where he said ...

2026-05-13T14:44:38Z

"There was a saying from John Adams in 1776, where he said public virtue cannot exist in a nation without private virtue, implying that citizenship involves sacrificing your personal interests for the greater public good. And Thomas Jefferson also spoke at length about taking a turn providing civic duty. Everyone has a civic responsibility to support society at large. But if you're going to go into government, if you're going to go into politics, you do a tour of duty. It's not a career. It was never meant to be a career." - David Friedberg, All-In Podcast w/ Spencer Pratt

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000767089944

Here we go again? ...

2026-05-11T16:00:21Z

Here we go again?

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/5c68442d2afc42d7ba2696e4cd393729

Nostr event nevent1qqs9xx654sxjl5j8mg5thlzd9gfhd2r89s73r2slqjqw3849wkat06qzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5x6g0xs

2026-05-11T14:51:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…nlgu
_________________________

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/5c68442d2afc42d7ba2696e4cd393729

Here we go again?

Nostr event nevent1qqsqmtyxwfnykga2vls9skdqvl8wneg264n35xcvackwxzya7cqf24qzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5v4ta29

2026-05-08T13:31:30Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/conviction-a-letter-to-my-kids

Nostr event nevent1qqsrm4m7ykhfjy5wutzytnsd6hhxnva80ugeqnj76wjry80lnv4vvpgzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5ck6m58

2026-05-07T13:09:43Z

Is this retard maxing or just retarded?

2026-05-03T15:45:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…r47n
_________________________

Is this retard maxing or just retarded?

This is rad, now do the same for the yachts

2026-05-01T19:23:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…s2rj
_________________________

This is rad, now do the same for the yachts

Nostr event nevent1qqsrtj4x98plp78rg9z0exrtrxnyxz3as438zp9t3xruvzwrha57cfszyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5f3qf5f

2026-04-30T12:30:11Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/assets-a-conversation-with-my-25

Only in politics

2026-04-29T14:33:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…ud2h
_________________________

Only in politics

Two humans ran Sunday's London Marathon in under two hours. ...

2026-04-29T13:49:09Z

Two humans ran Sunday's London Marathon in under two hours. Sabastian Sawe at 1:59:30, followed eleven seconds later by first-time marathoner Yomif Kejelcha at 1:59:41. That's a 4:33 mile pace. For 26.2 miles. Without stopping. Go outside and try to run a single mile at that pace. You might die. Real achievement is quiet. This should be front-page news everywhere. It isn't. Hats off, gentlemen.

At the current 6 month average BTC acquisition rate, Strategy ...

2026-04-27T18:33:04Z

At the current 6 month average BTC acquisition rate, Strategy will reach 1 million BTC in October 2026.

Reveal your true self ...

2026-04-25T23:49:33Z

Reveal your true self

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/reveal-your-true-self

Debt: A Conversation With My 25 Year Old Self (Don’t Fuck It Up ...

2026-04-24T13:53:07Z

Debt: A Conversation With My 25 Year Old Self (Don’t Fuck It Up Dummy)

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/debt-a-conversation-with-my-25-year

When you wake up at 3am and your mind is racing, don’t fight ...

2026-04-24T13:51:17Z

When you wake up at 3am and your mind is racing, don’t fight it, this is a gift, get up early and be productive - read, write, or just move. One of the greatest gifts in life is time, be grateful for these opportunities.

Today is a good day to buy some Bitcoin ...

2026-04-23T14:55:29Z

Today is a good day to buy some
Bitcoin

Strategy BTC acquisition chart is crazy, this can not go on ...

2026-04-23T03:37:56Z

Strategy BTC acquisition chart is crazy, this can not go on forever

Last week was MSTR’s third largest BTC purchase ever ...

2026-04-22T20:35:54Z

Last week was MSTR’s third largest BTC purchase ever representing 4.2% of their total stack, the other two were in November 2024 and a combined 13.2% of their current stack. In April of this year alone they have purchased 52% of what they did in all of 2025. Fucking bananas.

368 GW of wishful thinking - ERCOT’s recent load forecast ...

2026-04-22T13:38:06Z

368 GW of wishful thinking - ERCOT’s recent load forecast

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/368-gw-of-wishful-thinking

Great book, the system is still broken ~150 years from now! “Ad ...

2026-04-22T12:46:16Z

Great book, the system is still broken ~150 years from now! “Ad aspera, per aspera.” Theft of Fire by Devon Eriksen.

“scarcity shifts from knowledge to coordination” ...

2026-04-21T13:21:55Z

“scarcity shifts from knowledge to coordination”

https://open.substack.com/pub/visserlabs/p/the-repricing-of-time-equity-in-the?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

“Portfolio managers and analysts cost money and get bonuses. ...

2026-04-21T13:10:40Z

“Portfolio managers and analysts cost money and get bonuses. Computers don’t”

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-brings-sophisticated-quant-trading-to-the-masses-235560c7?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

AI is making software abundant while creating scarcity inflation ...

2026-04-20T16:07:37Z

AI is making software abundant while creating scarcity inflation on goods. Upper middle class knowledge workers are adopting AI fastest but running twice as hard just to stay in place. Bitcoin fixes this.

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/sunday-coffee-april-19th-2026?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

US Imports/Exports March 2026: Import prices +0.8% MoM, +2.1% ...

2026-04-17T16:02:38Z

US Imports/Exports March 2026: Import prices +0.8% MoM, +2.1% YoY. Export prices +1.6% MoM, +5.6% YoY. This is not a one-off spike; it's a trend with momentum. Even with the Strait open this momentum will take months to work its way through the economy. Bitcoin knows this.

PPI March 2026: goods will lead future inflation prints, the ...

2026-04-14T13:05:57Z

PPI March 2026: goods will lead future inflation prints, the greatest increase to goods in 2 years driven by energy (gasoline). Goods rise (1.6%) while services “fall” or remain flat (0.0%), produced goods largest increase in nearly 4 years, this is a problem.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

Inflation is going to +6%. Prints on the left of the 12 month ...

2026-04-14T12:06:40Z

Inflation is going to +6%. Prints on the left of the 12 month curve are 0.0-0.2, energy is the primary driver (again), and the rate of increase is outrageous.

Another Billion, Another Monday… Strategy just closed out ...

2026-04-13T13:49:57Z

Another Billion, Another Monday…

Strategy just closed out another week of its at-the-market program. The numbers:

- 10,028,363 shares of STRC sold

- $1 billion in net proceeds

- 13,927 BTC acquired at an average price of $71,902

That's a billion dollars raised and deployed into bitcoin in a single week. No fanfare. No special announcement. Just the machine doing what the machine does.

For those keeping score at home, Strategy still has $21.6 billion in remaining STRC capacity and $27.1 billion in total MSTR issuance capacity left on the table. The war chest isn't running low it's barely been opened.

Say what you will about the Strategy. It's not subtle. But a company methodically converting equity into the hardest money ever created, week after week, at scale is unreal conviction.

The rest of the market is still debating whether Bitcoin is an asset class. Strategy is buying it by the billions.

BLS CPI and Real Earnings, March 2026: The average worker is on a ...

2026-04-13T12:50:06Z

BLS CPI and Real Earnings, March 2026: The average worker is on a treadmill that continues to incline, real average hourly earnings up 0.1% year over year while inflation is up 3.3% for all items over the same period. Things are not looking good people.

Nostr event nevent1qqs9x5alhwh8vkfhcv5zl9s7chezep347t37jyz84v4yr7g50zld2dqzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5rxzkgu

2026-04-13T12:34:56Z

https://substack.com/@jackmdurden/note/p-193312174?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

Nostr event nevent1qqswpfh273qd5v3g6v4tkze95tmf9zftknhnzt5ztw8xhrg50a59s5czyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted53gsggf

2026-04-13T12:34:34Z

https://substack.com/@jackmdurden/note/p-193312468?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

Life is unfair, we are only in control of how we respond.

2026-04-11T16:41:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…epfv
_________________________

Life is unfair, we are only in control of how we respond.

Okay I figured it out, Preston is doing one of two things; 1) ...

2026-04-10T16:03:04Z

Okay I figured it out, Preston is doing one of two things; 1) lost all faith and conviction in Bitcoin and trying to figure out what to do next or 2) quietly building an army and coalition to tackle quantum threats to Bitcoin in an organized and productive fashion.

The natural state of the free market is deflation, I love ...

2026-04-08T15:31:12Z

The natural state of the free market is deflation, I love listening to Jeff Booth

Sunday Coffee - April 5th, 2026 ...

2026-04-05T18:43:12Z

Sunday Coffee - April 5th, 2026

https://substack.com/@jackmdurden/note/p-193249706?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

Development - don’t get left behind ...

2026-04-05T18:42:41Z

Development - don’t get left behind

https://substack.com/@jackmdurden/note/p-192512059?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

Preston Pysh, you are sorely missed, hopefully you will re-appear ...

2026-04-03T22:53:21Z

Preston Pysh, you are sorely missed, hopefully you will re-appear to drop some major knowledge or news soon.

Always remember how the government once responded to crisis…I ...

2026-04-03T14:41:11Z

Always remember how the government once responded to crisis…I often wonder about the people doing the work…and how this day of moving sand to a beach was explained at dinner.

The March report looks steady on the surface 178,000 jobs added, ...

2026-04-03T14:39:54Z

The March report looks steady on the surface 178,000 jobs added, unemployment ticked down to 4.3% but a few undercurrents are worth watching. February was revised and the labor force actually shrank by 396,000 people, meaning the unemployment rate improved partly because fewer people were looking for work, not because the job market got dramatically better. The number of marginally attached workers jumped by 325,000 and discouraged workers rose by 144,000. Long-term unemployment (27+ weeks) is up 322,000 over the year and now accounts for over a quarter of all unemployed. Federal government employment continues to bleed and financial activities are also trending down. Health care carried the month but a big chunk of that was physicians returning from a strike rather than organic growth. Wage growth at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year is cooling. Net this is a labor market that's holding together at the headline level but showing increasing signs of softening underneath, particularly in labor force participation, duration of unemployment, and the growing ranks of discouraged workers.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

A lot of important things in life and work are decided by some ...

2026-04-02T14:54:43Z

A lot of important things in life and work are decided by some asshole with a simple spreadsheet

Day one after quarter close Bitcoin up almost 3%, same exact ...

2026-04-01T12:55:08Z

Day one after quarter close Bitcoin up almost 3%, same exact thing happened in 2022, then sideways summer and new low late in the year…

Nostr event nevent1qqsvycrpj054686ur8sj9u8nyq9t0gh7cqnyel2dnqltxgv4h8khmyqzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5qa8fcp

2026-04-01T01:28:50Z

What happens when the AI Agents start to stack Sats? ...

2026-03-31T23:13:35Z

What happens when the AI Agents start to stack Sats?

Is this where Preston went?

2026-03-31T16:10:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…0rxg
_________________________

Is this where Preston went?

Nostr event nevent1qqsfus4nqn3szzm3pwxcs2gy38red7wypcerrxr2vz4nv2fve8959lgzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5ymf2yh

2026-03-31T16:08:57Z

Where did Preston go? I miss his podcast wisdom and perspective.

Amen

2026-03-31T12:00:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…gdnd
_________________________

Amen

During the summer of 2021 inflation became persistent. Inflation ...

2026-03-31T11:11:53Z

During the summer of 2021 inflation became persistent. Inflation peaked at over 9% nearly a year later…imports front run and foreshadow inflation…this is going to get ugly.

Every halving cycle has played out the same: crash, capitulation, ...

2026-03-31T10:44:43Z

Every halving cycle has played out the same: crash, capitulation, "Bitcoin is dead," then a new all-time high. Here is the trend:

1. $152 (Jan 2015) → ATH $19,800 (Dec 2017) — +12,926%

2. 3,122 (Dec 2018) → ATH $69,000 (Nov 2021) — +2,110%

3. 15,476 (Nov 2022) → ATH $126,296 (Oct 2025) — +716%

4. ~$50,000 (~2026) → Est. ATH $250,000 (~2029) — +400%

The last halving happened April 2024, daily production was 900 BTC, dropped to 450 BTC per day. The next halving is projected for April 2028, slashing daily production from ~450 BTC to ~225 BTC per day. While 2,000 to 4,500 BTC are accumulated on average daily.

The basis trade following the ETF launch in January 2024 is unwinding after more than 2 years, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC are on the rise, and exchange reserves have hit a 7 year low.

What do you think happens next?

Paradox of abundance and why you need a framework to live by… ...

2026-03-30T15:05:30Z

Paradox of abundance and why you need a framework to live by…

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/the-paradox-of-abundance-why-you?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

Why your work environment matters more than you think… ...

2026-03-30T15:04:37Z

Why your work environment matters more than you think…

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/environment-where-you-find-energy?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

Bitcoin fixes this, DOGE 2.0 ...

2026-03-30T15:02:25Z

Bitcoin fixes this, DOGE 2.0

https://open.substack.com/pub/visserlabs/p/doge-20-debt-oil-growth-employment?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

Feels like we’ve been here before… ...

2026-03-25T16:06:14Z

Feels like we’ve been here before…

Inflation and Rate Increases Coming In Hot… Import prices ...

2026-03-25T16:01:35Z

Inflation and Rate Increases Coming In Hot…

Import prices surged 1.3% in February the largest monthly jump since March 2022. Non-fuel imports rose 1.1%, with year-over-year gains hitting 2.5%, the hottest since Oct 2022. Capital goods posted their largest increase ever recorded (+1.3%). Finished metals are up 27% YoY. Export prices leapt 1.5%, the biggest monthly gain since May 2022, running 3.5% annually, which says global demand isn't cooling. The Fed has been enamored with "progress toward 2%" but when the stuff businesses actually buy to build and produce things is getting more expensive month after month (and we are at war in the Middle East!), that unravels real fast. Compounding core pressures = "how much do we hike?”

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ximpim.pdf

40% of Americans didn't read a single book in 2025. The ...

2026-03-25T12:37:23Z

40% of Americans didn't read a single book in 2025. The average American reads just 8 books a year, sadly the median is 2. Reading more doesn't require a massive lifestyle change. It just takes a few minutes each day:

• 1 min/day → 1 book/year
• 5 min/day → 4–8 books/year
• 10 min/day → 8–15 books/year
• 15 min/day → 11–22 books/year
• 20 min/day → 15–30 books/year
• 30 min/day → 22–44 books/year

Just one page a day about 60 seconds gets you through a full book in one year. That alone puts you ahead of 4 in 10 Americans. Five minutes a day puts you at or above the national average. Twenty minutes and you're outpacing the vast majority of the country.

The Root confirms what I’ve said before, we bottom later this ...

2026-03-24T13:54:05Z

The Root confirms what I’ve said before, we bottom later this year and then the bull market can begin its slow grind back up, next top late 2029. The cycle lives on. Buckle up folks.

FEB 5, 2026: “My current thesis - the cycle is not broken, we are going to $60K later this year, maybe even $50K (because the fall below $70K happened way faster than expected...but this is literally the exact same thing that happened in 2014, 2018, and 2022)...we'll hit the 50 week and 50 month moving averages soon and go sideways for months bottoming out late this year, the bull market will begin this fall (Nov/Oct 2026) and run until the cycle top October 2029.”

Nostr event nevent1qqsyaekx2s53fufwk87yqadc7zvtvfg80s33w2gmtxsjmwchsasnfyqzyzp9nhvu6tped73j4tn9utcfu2krymtm8a6m6jfh93m6sadsvted5slg0zk

2026-03-23T19:14:14Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/the-money-is-broken-but-theres-reason?utm_source=direct&r=7daxa5&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

In 1938 Germany, the Nazis passed the Reich Compulsory Education ...

2026-03-23T00:42:38Z

In 1938 Germany, the Nazis passed the Reich Compulsory Education Act, which for the first time completely outlawed homeschooling nationwide and made it a criminal offense not to send children to state-approved schools. The goal was centralized control over education to indoctrinate youth with Nazi ideology and eliminate alternative influences.

Abolishing daylight savings time has bipartisan support, popular ...

2026-03-23T00:41:40Z

Abolishing daylight savings time has bipartisan support, popular approval, and absolutely zero chance of happening because the government is completely broken. I know this because I cannot explain why we still have daylight saving time and have it make sense to a five-year-old.

On March 9, 2026, Bitcoin mined its 20 millionth coin, a ...

2026-03-23T00:40:15Z

On March 9, 2026, Bitcoin mined its 20 millionth coin, a milestone that took 17 years, 2 months, and one week to reach. The remaining 1 million BTC will take roughly 114 years, with the final satoshi expected around 2140. Today, miners produce about 450 BTC per day. The next halving is projected for April 2028, which will cut the block reward from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC and slash daily production to around 225 BTC. Meanwhile, since the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they've accumulated over 1.28 million BTC in total holdings absorbing an average of roughly 2,300 BTC per trading day. That is about five times the amount being mined daily.

“When you're inside, you look around, what do you see? ...

2026-03-23T00:11:27Z

“When you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. Most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. Many of them are so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.” — Morpheus, The Matrix

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/who-is-jack-durden?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

“You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize ...

2026-03-23T00:07:57Z

“You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” — Marcus Aurelius

https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/the-five-pillar-framework-how-to?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios

Wow rad, just set it up! Thanks 🙏🏼

2026-03-21T21:16:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…unsu
_________________________

Wow rad, just set it up! Thanks 🙏🏼

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good ...

2026-03-21T20:58:18Z

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” - Edmund Burke

https://substack.com/@jackmdurden/note/p-191645264?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action