2023-02-25T15:11:03Z https://yabu.me Bitcoiner https://yabu.me/npub1qmg4ccmzm3sjqu26vu5snvvg2yd4llraefas9uhxmpmudend9vrsuft0wh https://media1.giphy.com/media/trN9ht5RlE3Dcwavg2/giphy.gif?cid=2154d3d7ifqcpazj0z46gw6mfmpimbwf99jl8du5zpo2dzld&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g https://media1.giphy.com/media/trN9ht5RlE3Dcwavg2/giphy.gif?cid=2154d3d7ifqcpazj0z46gw6mfmpimbwf99jl8du5zpo2dzld&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g https://yabu.me/nevent1qqsrgs4v3lup3xrd4pjzw3wg8t5fj0k8dxzmaaj6gl06mnp09p4numczyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54swflc58m Gold Airdrop<br/><br/><a href="https://fuse.gold/referral/649846810cb8870012de52e6/">https://fuse.gold/referral/649846810cb8870012de52e6/</a> 2023-06-25T14:11:15Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqstmg3dr74ur8rsuvhv4hkqt245gf3e6m6kzudkshl6te92d0ljzvszyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54swtw76kc We Pay for YOU!<br/>Lots of things inside!!<br/><br/><a href="https://benefactor.beyondinfinity.club/saudicrypto">https://benefactor.beyondinfinity.club/saudicrypto</a> 2023-06-10T20:16:37Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqsfj9fs7sf4crxhafmtnfrhslahl7gwpw8e0kxzjm6f0mhgsqxhu2szyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54swugc7s6 We Pay it Forward for you … Leave it for 6 years and enjoy fortune!! <br/><br/><a href="https://benefactor.beyondinfinity.club/saudicrypto">https://benefactor.beyondinfinity.club/saudicrypto</a> 2023-06-09T14:18:35Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqsxx0jr5trda242p4akhhmvxnnrmmm5pnq3p2wytgv36fueafh59hqzyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54swtmgsvu Ramadhan Mubarak to all Muslim brothers and friends 2023-03-22T14:02:54Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqspuasjg2qncermx2qxjl9mqdxsl7e6kma5592shf8nd04xzdht9lszyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54sws050dd In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqswkawnrpyf56m9lewyhssaqqxmsugh76mpq8s5jecklza26jzsewqf5kxwq'>nevent1q…kxwq</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>I’m still in the early days ✋ 2023-03-21T22:06:14Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqs9myk9gxvgj7p49e9wpdvljeqtqnumrw4q9t644g54jene4jumv8szyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54swm9ccgz Silicon Valley Bank unit economics clarify what happened. <br/><br/>And frame likely deposit recoveries. <br/><br/>6 points: <br/><br/>1) Basic bank math<br/><br/>Banks take deposits and use them to make loans. <br/><br/>The delta between interest on loans and interest paid to depositors is the &#39;net interest margin&#39; (&#34;NIM&#34;) - the core metric of bank profitability.<br/><br/>And the delta between assets and liabilities is the bank&#39;s equity - the core metric of bank safety. <br/><br/>To generate positive NIM, banks make long-term loans at higher rates than they pay on deposits. <br/><br/><br/>2) Bank math at SVB<br/><br/>Before the issues, SVB held $212B of assets against $200B of liabilities - a paper equity cushion of $12B (5.6% of assets).<br/><br/>The assets fall into 3 buckets: <br/><br/>#1: Mortgage backed securities: $82B (83% residential)<br/>#2: Direct loans: $74B (55% short term loans to VCs &amp; PE)<br/>#3: Liquid assets: $55B<br/><br/>The liabilities fall into 2 buckets:<br/><br/>#1: Deposits: $174B (~11% FDIC insured)<br/>#2: Other debt &amp; pref: $25B<br/><br/><br/>3) What happened?<br/><br/>The Fed raised rates, making all long-term debt decline in value.<br/><br/>Including SVB&#39;s assets.<br/><br/>But accounting rules let SVB book mortgage securities as &#34;held-to-maturity&#34; (HTM), avoiding a hit to book equity. <br/><br/>In a December footnote, however, it disclosed the HTM book had $15B of &#34;unrealized&#34; (i.e. off-book) losses.<br/><br/>So even at that point, losses had wiped out the $12B equity cushion.<br/><br/><br/>4) What catalyzed the run?<br/><br/>The wipeout of the bank&#39;s tangible equity cushion was concerning.<br/><br/>But the losses were visible to anyone watching SVB closely. <br/><br/>So what changed? <br/><br/>SVB announced Wednesday it had sold $21B of liquid assets (from bucket #3) at a 9% loss and would raise money to cover the loss.<br/><br/>That concerned investors a bit - greater losses than expected and a poor NIM outlook. <br/><br/>But, more significantly, it spooked depositors (and their VC investors).<br/><br/><br/>5) Bank run<br/><br/>The next day (Thursday), depositors attempted to withdraw $42B from the bank, of which math implies ~$16B succeeded. <br/><br/>Leaving the bank with negative ~$1B of cash when the FDIC took over Friday.<br/><br/><br/>6) Simplistic recovery math<br/><br/>The balance sheet is pretty clear now given how rapid the event was. <br/><br/>The starting point is ~$10B of paper equity ($12B minus the $2B recognized AFS loss). <br/><br/>The range of HTM &amp; other book loss is $20-40B based on the unrealized loss at Dec, the loss on the sale of the AFS book, and market moves.<br/><br/>On net, that impairs assets by $10-30B against a deposit &amp; debt base of ~$162B (deposits of $168B minus the $16B deposit outflow and ~$10B of FDIC insured deposits, plus ~$20B of other debt).<br/><br/>Add in liquidation cost and that implies in the 5-20% loss range on remaining deposits.<br/><br/>Investors will spend time putting a finer point on this. <br/><br/>As always though, the key is to watch headlines, but do math. <br/><br/>Without a solid grounding in the numbers, you&#39;re at the whim of someone else&#39;s narrative.<br/><br/>That&#39;s all for now. 2023-03-14T19:44:26Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqsy4cl085x8akk9rudzkkh64dpr8xp6grvh320t8xl02k7l35cvd6gzyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54swwukxzl تجربة اللغة العربية في هذا التطبيق. من يقرأها يرد باللغة العربية 2023-03-10T12:45:02Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqsdk98smh2fdh5ezxns7tyde8awcjz70pentnms28ca685annf7xjczyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54swl2ex2g <img src="https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_aed85ab813498f97c157f72be8f4349e029ae425d600412679939888cfb2d3cc.gif"> 2023-02-24T13:46:05Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqsfxqdzk8pzwcnf2wd4jpj9ajsqhkxdcd2x5q4tjv625wj96t9sc3qzyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54sw2cgp6h In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsgahgq0h064fj33xkr0kzsg5l9yw2m3tfqupjravzynhpmt9m3k8gt0gcut'>nevent1q…gcut</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>🥸👻 2023-02-23T22:39:49Z https://yabu.me/nevent1qqs98zj23ggds4usqln04fwda3akdppd0njxjjreaz2fp8k2u085drczyqrdzhrrvtwxzgr3tfnjjzd33pg3khlu0h98kqhjumv803hxd54sw4x58e9 China crypto projects are exploding due to economy improvement 2023-02-21T13:45:47Z