tech_pleb on Nostr: I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending ...

I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest order. While I think bitcoin will come out on top eventually, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch & correlation -> 1 event like Mar 2020 is higher than at any point since then. While the eventual result will probably be QE & bitcoin mooning, don't think that it can't first get slaughtered in price by another credit crunch & wave of deflation. In fact, QE won't happen until such an event forces the fed's hand.

See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) & blue is the QE part (treasury & agency securities obtained by printing money & buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue & red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence & green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated.