Space Cadet on Nostr: It’s a complex one with important pros and cons on either side. The cons to ...

It’s a complex one with important pros and cons on either side.

The cons to supporting Ukrainian independence is of course the Sino-Russian alliance. China is too damned threatening for the Anglos / Transatlantics to be getting distracted by the Russians.

But on the other hand, the war in Ukraine has far-reaching implications for the Three Seas Initiative (3SI). The 3SI is an economic and infrastructure grouping among the Eastern European counties (those post-Soviet states from Estonia in the North to Bulgaria and Croatia in the south), which is culturally different to Western Europe and becoming increasingly concerned with the apparent authoritarianism of the left-wing EU parties.

The 3SI is lead primarily by Poland and may, in the future, arrest some control over the European Union away from the Franco-German progressives. However, this will to a large degree depend on the outcome of the Ukraine war.

The twelve 3SI states currently possess 223 seats in the European Parliament (compared to 231 held by France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg). If Ukraine is admitted, with its 40+ million citizens, then the 3SI will likely command around 265 seats.

This means that a strong 3SI might actually bring about a legitimate conservative faction within European politics, but it depends on the level of economic and political autonomy of the eastern states.

The 3SI is punting heavily on LNG to secure its base load power requirements (which is, of course, pissing off the Western Europeans to no end). The Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund (3SIIF) is building out LNG terminals, pipelines, generators etc, which is hoped to supply them with cheap and reliable energy to underpin their economic growth in the years ahead. In 2012, Ukraine discovered 2.3 trillion cubic metres of natural gas under its share of the black sea.

If the Ukrainians win the war then they will almost certainly accede to the 3SI (as they will be tremendously politically indebted to Poland and other members of the Bucharest 9). In that case, Ukraine will be able to underwrite the economic development of Eastern Europe with cheap and reliable energy. It’s reasonable to assume that this will lead to a rebalancing of political power within the EU as well.

At the moment, the two major parties within the EU are the Socialist Democrats (S&D) and the European People’s Party (EPP). While the EPP claims to be conservative, by Anglo standards it is also progressive left. This means that the EU presently does not have non-progressive representation in Government.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) is a conservative party (free market economics, free speech, national autonomy etc) and is most successful in the eastern European 3SI states (chiefly in Poland). Depending on how quickly the 3SI can develop economically, within a decade we might see a legitimate counterweight in Europe. Victory in Ukraine will not only grant the 3SI more seats in Parliament than Western Europe, but will also expedite the attainment of economic autonomy (and therefore, political autonomy) in the post-Soviet states.